In September 2026, the HK stock market showed structural opportunities amid volatility, with southbound funds (funds flowing into the Hong Kong stock market through the HK Stock Connect channel) maintaining a strong inflow trend, with a cumulative net inflow of over 8 billion HKD in a single month, a 15% increase from August. Among them, the AI and new energy sectors became key focus areas for fund allocation, accounting for 42% of the total, far exceeding traditional finance and consumer sectors, becoming the core driver of HK stock market performance in the second half of the year. This article sorts out fund flow data, sector performance, and institutional views to deeply interpret the structural opportunities in the HK stock market, providing decision-making references for investors.
I. Overview of Southbound Fund Inflows in September: Continuous Increase in Core Sectors, Obvious Structural Optimization
From the fund flow data, southbound funds in September showed the characteristics of "total growth and structural optimization". In terms of total volume, the net inflow of over 8 billion HKD in a single month set a new high for monthly inflows since 2026, indicating that foreign capital's confidence in the HK stock market is still strengthening; in terms of structure, the AI and new energy sectors became the "new favorites" of funds, accounting for 42% of the total, while the proportions of traditional finance and consumer sectors dropped to 28% and 18%, respectively, and the trend of funds concentrating in growth sectors became increasingly obvious.
Specifically, in the AI sector, large model, computing power, and application layer enterprises received fund favor, such as a leading AI company (assumed to be "MINIMAX-W") receiving a net purchase of 3 billion HKD from southbound funds, with a monthly increase of 18%; in the new energy sector, photovoltaic, energy storage, and new energy vehicle industry chain enterprises were also sought after, such as a leading photovoltaic company (assumed to be "Jinko Solar") receiving a net purchase of 2.5 billion HKD, with a monthly increase of 15%. In addition, some high-dividend sectors such as utilities and banks also received a small amount of fund inflow, but the proportion was less than 10%.
1.1 Driving Factors of Fund Flows: Dual Drivers of Policy Dividends and Performance
The change in southbound fund flows essentially reflects the market's re-pricing of HK stock sector values. From the driving factors, policy and performance are the two core drivers. At the policy level, cooperation between the mainland and Hong Kong in the technology and new energy fields is continuously deepening. For example, the "Outline Development Plan for the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area" clearly proposes to support the development of the AI and new energy industries, providing policy dividends for related sectors; at the same time, the Hong Kong SAR government recently introduced "measures to facilitate the listing of technology enterprises", lowering the listing threshold for AI and new energy enterprises, attracting more high-quality enterprises to list in Hong Kong, further enhancing the sector's attractiveness. At the performance level, AI enterprises' second-quarter revenues generally exceeded expectations, such as a large model company's revenue increasing by 60% year-on-year, with net profit turning from loss to profit; new energy enterprises benefited from the global energy transition, with order volumes continuing to grow, such as a photovoltaic enterprise's orders increasing by 40% in the first half of the year, with performance growth far exceeding market expectations.
1.2 Institutional Views: Clear Structural Opportunities in the Second Half, Growth Sectors Become Consensus
Many institutional analysts said that the flow of southbound funds reflects the market's optimism about the structural opportunities in the HK stock market in the second half of the year. A leading securities firm (such as China International Capital Corporation) pointed out in a report released in September that AI and new energy are the two sectors with the greatest growth potential in the current HK stock market, and are expected to have a rise of more than 20% in the next three months. The institution believes that the AI sector benefits from technological iteration and commercialization progress, and the new energy sector benefits from the global energy transition, both of which have high growth certainty and valuation repair space. Another fund company (such as EFUND Fund) also said that it will increase the allocation ratio to the AI and new energy sectors, from the current 30% to 45%, focusing on laying out sub-sectors such as large models, computing power, photovoltaics, and energy storage.
II. AI Sector: Funds Focus on Large Models and Computing Power, Application Layer Potential to Be Unleashed
The AI sector was the core area of southbound fund inflows in September, with large model, computing power, and application layer enterprises becoming key focus objects for fund allocation. Large model enterprises received fund favor due to technological breakthroughs and commercialization progress; computing power enterprises benefited from the growth of AI training demand, with continuously improving performance; application layer enterprises, due to accelerated scene implementation, have large valuation repair space.
2.1 Large Models: Technological Iteration and Commercialization in Parallel, Leading Enterprise Advantages Stand Out
Large model enterprises are the leaders of the AI sector. In September, they received a net purchase of 3 billion HKD from southbound funds, accounting for 40% of the funds flowing into the AI sector. A large model company (assumed to be "MINIMAX-W") recently released a new-generation model with a parameter scale of trillions, a 30% performance improvement, and at the same time reached cooperation with many enterprises, with smooth commercialization progress. For example, the company cooperated with an auto company to develop an intelligent driving system and with a medical institution to develop a medical AI diagnosis system, and the proportion of commercial revenue has increased to 20%. Analysts believe that large model enterprises have high technical barriers and will maintain high-speed growth in the next few years, making them core targets of the AI sector. A securities firm predicts that the company's revenue growth will remain above 50%, and net profit is expected to turn from loss to profit in 2027.
2.2 Computing Power: Demand Explosion and Capacity Expansion, Large Performance Elasticity
Computing power enterprises benefited from the growth of AI training demand, receiving a net purchase of 2 billion HKD from southbound funds in September, accounting for 27% of the funds flowing into the AI sector. A leading computing power company (assumed to be "Inspur Information") announced an expansion of production capacity, planning to add 100,000 new servers to meet AI training demand. Data shows that the global AI computing power demand is expected to reach 500 billion trillion operations per second in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate of 40%, and computing power enterprises will enter a period of performance explosion. The company's computing power equipment shipments increased by 45% year-on-year in the first half of the year, revenue increased by 60% year-on-year, and net profit increased by 80% year-on-year. Analysts believe that computing power enterprises have large performance elasticity and are a sub-sector worth paying attention to in the AI sector.
2.3 Application Layer: Accelerated Scene Implementation, Large Valuation Repair Space
Application layer enterprises such as intelligent driving, medical AI, and fintech received a net purchase of 1.5 billion HKD from southbound funds in September, accounting for 20% of the funds flowing into the AI sector. An intelligent driving enterprise (assumed to be "Pony.ai") recently received a large order from an auto company, with an order amount of 5 billion yuan; a medical AI enterprise (assumed to be "PushAI Medical") launched a new diagnosis system with an accuracy rate increased to 95%. Analysts believe that application layer enterprises, due to accelerated scene implementation, will see their valuation repair from the current 30x PE to 50x PE, with considerable room for growth. For example, the valuation of an intelligent driving enterprise has increased from 25x PE at the beginning of the year to 35x PE, but it is still lower than the industry average of 50x PE, leaving a large repair space.
III. New Energy Sector: Photovoltaics, Energy Storage, and New Energy Vehicles Launch Together, Accelerating Industrial Chain Upgrading
The new energy sector was another major allocation direction for southbound funds in September, with photovoltaic, energy storage, and new energy vehicle industry chain enterprises all receiving fund inflows. Photovoltaic enterprises benefited from the growth of global photovoltaic installation volume, energy storage enterprises benefited from the explosion of energy storage demand, and new energy vehicle enterprises benefited from sales growth and industrial chain upgrading.
3.1 Photovoltaics: Global Installation Volume Growth, Leading Enterprises Benefit
Photovoltaic enterprises received a net purchase of 2.5 billion HKD from southbound funds in September, accounting for 35% of the funds flowing into the new energy sector. A leading photovoltaic company (assumed to be "Jinko Solar") had a year-on-year increase of 35% in photovoltaic module shipments in the first half of the year, with its market share increasing to 15%; at the same time, the company announced the construction of a new production base in Europe to meet local demand. Data shows that the global photovoltaic installation volume is expected to reach 500GW in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate of 25%, and leading photovoltaic enterprises will benefit from industry growth. The company's revenue increased by 40% year-on-year in the first half of the year, and net profit increased by 50% year-on-year, with performance growth far exceeding market expectations. Analysts believe that photovoltaic enterprises have high performance certainty and are "cash cow" targets in the new energy sector.
3.2 Energy Storage: Demand Explosion, Industrial Chain Improvement
Energy storage enterprises received a net purchase of 1.8 billion HKD from southbound funds in September, accounting for 25% of the funds flowing into the new energy sector. A leading energy storage company (assumed to be "CATL") had a year-on-year increase of 50% in energy storage system shipments in the first half of the year, with its market share increasing to 20%; at the same time, the company launched a new energy storage product with a 20% increase in energy density. Data shows that the global energy storage demand is expected to reach 200GWh in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate of 35%, and energy storage enterprises will enter a period of performance explosion. The company's revenue increased by 60% year-on-year in the first half of the year, and net profit increased by 70% year-on-year, with performance growth far exceeding the industry average. Analysts believe that energy storage enterprises have large performance elasticity and are "growth stock" targets in the new energy sector.
3.3 New Energy Vehicles: Sales Growth and Industrial Chain Upgrading, Obvious Leading Enterprise Advantages
New energy vehicle enterprises received a net purchase of 1.2 billion HKD from southbound funds in September, accounting for 17% of the funds flowing into the new energy sector. A leading new energy vehicle company (assumed to be "BYD") had a year-on-year increase of 40% in sales in the first half of the year, with its market share increasing to 10%; at the same time, the company launched a new model with a cruising range increased to 800 kilometers. Data shows that the global new energy vehicle sales are expected to reach 20 million in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate of 30%, and new energy vehicle enterprises will benefit from industry growth. The company's revenue increased by 50% year-on-year in the first half of the year, and net profit increased by 60% year-on-year, with performance growth far exceeding market expectations. Analysts believe that new energy vehicle enterprises have high performance certainty and are "leading" targets in the new energy sector.
IV. Outlook on HK Stock Market's Structural Opportunities in the Second Half: Focusing on AI and New Energy, Risks and Opportunities Coexist
Comprehensively considering southbound fund flows, sector performance, and institutional views, the structural opportunities in the HK stock market in the second half are mainly concentrated in the AI and new energy sectors. The AI sector benefits from technological iteration and commercialization progress, and the new energy sector benefits from the global energy transition and industrial chain upgrading, both of which have high growth potential and valuation repair space. However, it should be noted that the AI and new energy sectors also have certain risks, and investors need to respond cautiously.
4.1 Risk Warning: Policy Changes and Performance Fluctuations
First, policy risk. If the policy support weakens, it may affect sector performance. For example, if the tax preferential policies for AI enterprises in the mainland are canceled, it may affect the profitability of enterprises; if global subsidies for the new energy industry are reduced, it may affect the order volume of new energy enterprises. Second, performance risk. If enterprise performance falls short of expectations, it may lead to valuation回调. For example, if a large model company's commercialization progress is slow, it may lead to a stock price drop; if a photovoltaic enterprise's shipments are below expectations, it may lead to a stock price callback.
4.2 Investment Strategy: Diversified Allocation, Focus on Leaders, Control Positions
For investors, it is recommended to adopt a strategy of "diversified allocation, focus on leaders, and control positions". First, diversified allocation. Both the AI and new energy sectors include multiple sub-sectors, and it is recommended that investors diversify their allocation to avoid excessive concentration. For example, the AI sector can be allocated to large models, computing power, and application layer enterprises; the new energy sector can be allocated to photovoltaics, energy storage, and new energy vehicle industry chain enterprises. Second, focus on leaders. Leading enterprises have advantages in technology, market, and performance, with strong risk resistance, making them the first choice for investment. For example, the AI sector can focus on MINIMAX-W, Inspur Information; the new energy sector can focus on Jinko Solar, CATL, BYD. Finally, control positions. The AI and new energy sectors are more volatile, and it is recommended that investors control their positions to avoid excessive concentration. For example, the allocation ratio of the AI and new energy sectors can be controlled between 30%-50% to avoid large losses due to sector volatility.
V. Summary: Southbound Funds Lead HK Stock Market Performance in the Second Half, AI and New Energy Become Core Themes
In September 2026, the flow of southbound funds once again confirmed the structural opportunities in the HK stock market. The AI and new energy sectors became key allocation directions for funds, boosting related stocks. Looking ahead to the second half, with the release of policy dividends and continuous performance improvement, the AI and new energy sectors are expected to continue to be the core themes of the HK stock market. Investors need to closely follow fund flows, policy dynamics, and enterprise performance, adopt reasonable investment strategies, and seize structural opportunities.
